Deciphering Trends from Fads: A Deep Dive into Longevity in the Healthy Foods and Supplements Industry
In the realm of the Healthy Foods and Supplements industry, where trends emerge and dissipate with remarkable speed, distinguishing between passing fads and enduring phenomena is akin to navigating a bustling marketplace.
Nowhere is this more on display than at the annual Natural Foods Expo West, and 2024 was no exception in this area. From egg-based alternatives to a slew of mushroom-focused replacement products, it’s not hard to see a whole host of brands all converging on a handful of similar ideas.
And as anyone who works in this industry knows, not all of those ideas are going to stick around - there’ll be some winners, some losers, some will stay with diminished presence, and some will prove their critics wrong by proving themselves as growing industry trends rather than flashes-in-the-proverbial-pan.
So, what then really separates a fad from a trend?
Why do some trends captivate attention momentarily, propelled by catchy slogans or flashy packaging, while others carve a lasting niche in the market, driven by genuine consumer demand and health-conscious preferences?
Is Longevity The Only Difference Between A Fad And A Trend?
Longevity stands as a beacon of stability amidst the ever-shifting currents of consumer preferences and market dynamics. Trends that endure over time demonstrate a resilience that transcends mere novelty, embodying qualities that resonate with consumers on a deeper level.
Although there’s no exact science for ascertaining when to move something from “fad” to “trend”, there are rough benchmarks to look for in regards to how durable it’s been thus far. At TasteFluent, we say a trend's ability to last over time is evident when multiple brands have been offering products in the same space for at least three years (this does not encompass ‘emerging’ trends). This indicates sustained consumer interest and market demand, showing that the trend is more than just a fleeting hype.
The presence of multiple brands competing in the same niche for an extended period not only validates the trend's longevity but also fosters innovation and improvement in product quality. Conversely, trends that fade quickly usually lack the sustained sales and market presence seen in enduring trends.
In essence, prioritizing trends with a history of lasting at least three years helps industry stakeholders make informed decisions, positioning themselves for long-term success in a competitive market.
One of the most telling signs of a trend's potential for longevity is its track record within the industry - and these factors can be both quantifiable (consistent sales data) and qualifiable (as we’ll go into below).
By examining how long a particular phenomenon has been present in the market, we can glean valuable insights into its staying power. Trends that have stood the test of time, weathering fluctuations in consumer demand and market trends, are more likely to possess the intrinsic qualities necessary for sustainability. These enduring trends often become entrenched in consumer habits and preferences, evolving from passing interests into integral components of the industry landscape.
Qualifiable Factors
Here, it’s essential to consider qualifiable factors that go beyond simply the time a product has been in the market - because let’s face it, you want to ride the wave before year 3. While longevity is important, other factors such as clinical backing and addressing current health issues that are in the media spotlight can also play a significant role in identifying enduring trends.
Products supported by rigorous scientific studies not only inspire trust and confidence among consumers but also demonstrate tangible health benefits, increasing their likelihood of long-term success. Additionally, trends that address current health issues that are receiving widespread media attention are more likely to resonate with consumers and gain traction in the market. By tapping into the cultural zeitgeist and addressing pressing health concerns, these trends can capture the public's imagination and maintain relevance over time.
Moreover, factors such as consumer perception, brand authenticity, and alignment with broader cultural values can also influence a trend's longevity. Trends that resonate with consumers on a deeper level, evoke positive emotions, and align with their values and beliefs are more likely to endure beyond passing fads.
Authenticity And Credibility
Longevity in the Healthy Foods and Supplements industry is often synonymous with authenticity and credibility. Trends that have maintained relevance and consumer interest over an extended period typically do so by delivering genuine value and addressing real consumer needs. Whether it's a superfood that has been consumed for centuries in traditional diets or a wellness practice rooted in ancient traditions, the longevity of these trends is often a testament to their efficacy and significance in promoting health and well-being.
Another aspect of longevity worth considering is the evolution of trends over time. While some trends may appear stagnant or plateau after an initial surge in popularity, others demonstrate a remarkable ability to adapt and evolve in response to changing consumer preferences and market dynamics. This capacity for innovation and reinvention not only sustains the relevance of a trend but also ensures its continued resonance with consumers across generations.
Furthermore, trends that have endured over time often exhibit a degree of staying power that transcends temporary fluctuations in market trends or economic conditions. Whether driven by shifting cultural norms, scientific advancements, or evolving consumer preferences, these enduring trends demonstrate a remarkable resilience that positions them as pillars of stability in an industry characterized by rapid change.
In essence, longevity serves as a litmus test for the enduring relevance and significance of trends in the Healthy Foods and Supplements industry. By recognizing the value of longevity as a key indicator of sustainability, industry stakeholders can make informed decisions and embrace trends that are poised to stand the test of time, shaping the future of health and wellness for years to come.
But a lot goes into making something that has staying power, and these are the fundamentals that go into longevity.
Let’s break down some of the questions we should be asking ourselves when we’re evaluating how much longevity a trend before us is likely to have…
1) How Credible Is The Scientific Backing?
Scientific support serves as a cornerstone of credibility, providing consumers and industry stakeholders with assurance that a trend is founded on sound principles and genuine health benefits.
One of the primary ways to discern the potential longevity of a trend is to evaluate the extent to which it is supported by scientific evidence. Rigorous studies conducted by reputable researchers and institutions can provide valuable insights into the efficacy and safety of a particular product or practice. Trends that have been subjected to peer-reviewed research and have yielded consistent, reproducible results are more likely to endure over time, as they inspire trust and confidence among consumers and health professionals alike.
Moreover, scientific support not only validates the claims associated with a trend but also helps to elucidate the underlying mechanisms of action and physiological effects. Understanding the scientific basis of a trend allows consumers to make informed decisions about its potential benefits and risks, empowering them to prioritize evidence-based approaches to health and wellness.
Furthermore, trends that are supported by scientific research often undergo rigorous scrutiny, which helps to identify any potential pitfalls or limitations. By subjecting trends to the rigors of scientific inquiry, researchers can uncover any discrepancies between perceived benefits and actual outcomes, helping to ensure that consumers are not misled by unfounded claims or pseudoscientific assertions.
Additionally, trends that are firmly grounded in scientific evidence are more likely to garner the support of healthcare professionals and regulatory authorities. Health professionals, including doctors, dietitians, and nutritionists, rely on evidence-based guidelines to inform their recommendations to patients and clients. Trends that align with established scientific principles are therefore more likely to be embraced by healthcare providers as legitimate tools for promoting health and preventing disease.
2) How Culturally Relevant to North American Lifestyles Is It?
Once considered a reliable indicator of a trend's potential longevity, cultural relevance now presents a more nuanced and complex picture, shaped by the forces of globalization and the increasingly interconnected nature of modern society.
Traditionally, cultural relevance served as a barometer of a trend's resonance within a particular community or demographic. In the past, trends that aligned with established cultural norms, traditions, and dietary practices were more likely to gain widespread acceptance and endure over time. However, as our own culture shifts to allow for more specifically cultural imports from other places, how culturally relevant a product is to American culture is growing to be a less reliable way of predicting whether something is really a trend or a fad.
Furthermore, the rise of social media and digital communication has accelerated the spread of cultural trends and influences, transcending geographical boundaries and cultural barriers. A trend that originates in one corner of the globe can quickly gain traction and visibility on a global scale, propelled by the power of social networks and online communities. As a result, trends that may have once been dismissed as niche or culturally exotic now have the potential to resonate with a diverse array of consumers, regardless of their cultural background.
Moreover, the democratization of food culture has empowered consumers to explore and experiment with a wide range of culinary influences, blurring the lines between traditional and contemporary dietary practices. From fusion cuisines that blend elements of multiple culinary traditions to innovative uses of exotic ingredients in mainstream products, the modern food landscape is characterized by a spirit of culinary exploration and boundary-pushing creativity.
In conclusion, while cultural relevance remains an important consideration in assessing the potential longevity of a trend, its significance has evolved in response to the forces of globalization and cultural exchange. Rather than serving as a definitive predictor of a trend's fate, cultural relevance now reflects the dynamic interplay of diverse cultural influences and consumer preferences in shaping the future of the Healthy Foods and Supplements industry. As we continue to embrace the richness and diversity of global culinary traditions, the boundaries between cultures will continue to blur, giving rise to new and exciting trends that defy easy categorization and challenge conventional notions of cultural relevance.
3) Are The Big Players Taking Notice?
One of the key advantages of industry adoption is the ability to leverage the vast resources and distribution networks of established market leaders. When a trend gains traction among major players in the industry, it benefits from increased visibility and accessibility, reaching a broader audience of consumers who may not have been exposed to it otherwise.
For example, Chobani helped dramatically expand the range of yogurts on the market by popularizing greek yogurt. By spearheading greek yogurt’s entry onto the mainstream market, they created a thriving sub-category within yogurts that other companies (such as Yoplait) had to now compete within. Thus, where once there was just yogurt, the world now has both greek and traditional yogurt - stocked right alongside each other.
Their success not only popularized Greek yogurt but also expanded the possibilities for other types of yogurt in the market. For instance, Icelandic yogurt likely gained traction as a result. Chobani's effective introduction of a different type of yogurt paved the way for the introduction of various other yogurt varieties by different brands, alongside Greek yogurt. This demonstrates how a single success story can influence the market landscape and open doors for innovation and diversification within the industry.
Moreover, industry adoption can help to legitimize a trend in the eyes of consumers and health professionals alike. When a trend is embraced by reputable companies with a track record of delivering high-quality products, it instills confidence in its safety, efficacy, and overall value. This validation from industry leaders can help to overcome skepticism or resistance from consumers who may be wary of trying new products or practices.
Furthermore, industry adoption can drive innovation and competition within the market, leading to the development of new and improved offerings that better meet consumer needs and preferences. For example, the growing demand for organic and natural products has prompted major food and beverage companies to invest in research and development efforts to create healthier, more sustainable alternatives to traditional offerings. This competition benefits consumers by expanding the range of options available to them and raising the overall quality standards of products in the market.
Additionally, industry adoption can have ripple effects throughout the supply chain, creating opportunities for farmers, producers, and suppliers to capitalize on the growing demand for a particular trend. For example, the increasing popularity of probiotics and fermented foods has spurred significant additional investment in long-standing research and development to identify new strains of beneficial bacteria and improve fermentation techniques. This has led to partnerships between food companies and suppliers to source high-quality ingredients and ensure product consistency and efficacy, all of which increases the chances of a fad becoming an entrenched trend within the industry.
So, we can see that industry adoption plays a pivotal role in shaping the trajectory of trends in the Health Foods and Supplements industry. By leveraging the influence and resources of major market players, trends can gain widespread acceptance, legitimacy, and accessibility, paving the way for long-term success and impact. As the industry continues to evolve and innovate, industry adoption will remain a key determinant of which trends ultimately prevail in the marketplace.
4) Does It Have Regulatory Approval?
New ingredients and health trends that successfully navigate the regulatory landscape and obtain official approval from health authorities are often viewed with greater trust and credibility by consumers, health professionals, and industry stakeholders alike. Arguably if you see new regulations being considered there is a chance a popular trend may have spurred the review - for example the debate on the use of the term ‘milk’ applied to non-dairy milk.
Regulation As A Credibility Indicator
One of the primary reasons why regulatory approval is a significant factor in determining the longevity of a trend is the assurance it provides regarding safety and efficacy - regulation here isn’t just a signpost of what’s legal and what isn’t, but what’s credible and what isn’t, which plays directly into the longevity of any trend downwind of the ingredients being discussed. Health authorities such as the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) in the United States or the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) in Europe play a critical role in evaluating the scientific evidence supporting the health claims associated with a trend, as well as assessing the potential risks and benefits to consumers. Trendy ingredients or associated health claims that receive regulatory approval are subjected to rigorous scrutiny and review, ensuring that they meet established safety standards and deliver on their promised health benefits. In this industry, every trend lives and dies on credibility - and regulatory approval helps provide that.
Moreover, regulatory approval can help to mitigate the risk of misleading or false claims in the marketplace. By requiring trends to substantiate their health claims with scientific evidence, health authorities help to protect consumers from deceptive marketing practices and ensure that they have access to accurate and reliable information when making purchasing decisions.
This transparency and accountability foster trust and confidence in the products and practices that receive regulatory approval, strengthening their position in the marketplace and enhancing their long-term viability.
Does The Regulatory Environment Inhibit Clear Brand Messaging?
An essential question to ask when considering the commercialization of a trendy product is whether there is sufficient room within existing regulatory frameworks to market the product in a meaningful and easily understandable way.
Regulatory constraints that necessitate overly complex marketing messaging can significantly impact a brand's message and, consequently, its sales potential. Therefore, companies must carefully assess the regulatory landscape and ensure that their marketing strategies align with regulatory requirements while effectively communicating the product's value proposition to consumers.
By striking a balance between regulatory compliance and impactful messaging, companies can maximize their brand's visibility and appeal in the marketplace.
One unexpected way regulatory approval can indicate a trend’s staying power is that it can actively stimulate innovation and investment within the industry. Trends that successfully navigate the regulatory process and obtain official approval are more likely to attract investment from companies and entrepreneurs looking to capitalize on emerging opportunities in the market. This influx of capital and resources can fuel further research and development efforts, driving innovation and driving the evolution of trends over time.
International Market Access
Additionally, regulatory approval can facilitate international market access, enabling trends to expand their reach beyond domestic borders and tap into global consumer demand. Products and practices that have been approved by reputable health authorities are more likely to gain acceptance in foreign markets, as they are perceived as meeting international standards for safety and quality. This opens up new avenues for growth and expansion for trends seeking to establish a foothold in the global marketplace.
5) How Complex Are The Production Logistics?
Put simply: production realities matter.
Some things are simply more difficult to capitalize on, because producing certain things is fundamentally more difficult than producing other things.
How complex your production realities are informs how complex your logistics have to be…and the more complex your logistics have to be, the fewer competitors can realistically show up to steal your thunder. On the other hand, this obviously advantages the most established companies who can more readily absorb the costs of heavy logistics chains.
Format plays a pivotal role in the commercialization of trendy products, with different formats presenting unique challenges and opportunities. For instance, the decision to produce a Ready-to-Drink (RTD) product versus a powder beverage can significantly impact supply chain logistics, manufacturing requirements, and Minimum Order Quantities (MOQs). RTDs often entail expensive pilot runs, long lead times for packaging materials, and high MOQs (hello Tetra Pak), making them a substantial investment for companies. Conversely, opting for a powder beverage may offer more flexibility in terms of production and scalability, but may require additional consumer education and marketing efforts to promote usage.
Moreover, competition within popular formats such as bars or gummies can pose challenges for companies looking to commercialize trendy products. If a company's unique selling proposition (USP) solely revolves around format, it may struggle to differentiate itself from competitors, particularly larger players with greater resources for marketing and production. Therefore, companies must carefully evaluate the competitive landscape and assess whether their chosen format offers sufficient opportunities for differentiation and market penetration.
Another critical factor to consider is the shelf life of the product, which can significantly impact commercialization strategies and market positioning. Products with shorter shelf lives, such as bars, may require higher turnover rates and more frequent replenishment, whereas products with longer shelf lives, such as powders or capsules, offer greater flexibility in distribution and storage. Additionally, shelf life considerations are crucial for products requiring consumer education, as longer shelf lives provide more time to educate consumers and build brand awareness.
Furthermore, companies must assess their ability to commercialize trendy products quickly and effectively to capitalize on market opportunities. Success in the industry often hinges on being the first to market with a compelling product that resonates with consumers - first capturing the market for one trend, and then using your dominant market position to be the next market leader in the next trend.
Conclusion
Let’s face it: figuring out which trends will stick around isn't always easy.
We've evaluated many variables and factors to help us make informed decisions - like how long a trend has been around, if big companies are getting on board, and if it aligns with what's hot in the news or on social media. It's not just about numbers, though. We also need to think about things like whether a trend has solid scientific backing and if it connects with what consumers care about.
By looking at both the hard numbers and the less tangible stuff, we can get a better picture of what's likely to last.
Being flexible and quick to adapt is key in this industry. Trends that can change and grow over time while still staying true to their core ideas are the ones most likely to stick around. So, by keeping our eyes on all these factors, we can make smarter decisions and set ourselves up for success in a world where what's "in" can change in the blink of an eye.
Looking to investigate a line extension or review a trend’s fit for your audience?
Book a free consultation with the TasteFluent team today!
